I just did math for hypothetical matchup odds assuming this is true:

Game 1: 90/10

Games 2 and 3: 40/60

and came up with a matchup win percentage of 46%, which was far lower than I expected. This is making me rethink the methodology behind my testing, assuming my maths is correct.

Odds of winning games 2 and 3 = 0.16

Odds of winning game 2 or game 3 = 2 * 0.6 * 0.4 = 0.48

Odds of losing games 2 and 3 = 0.36

Odds of winning match = (0.9 * 0.48) + (0.1 * 0.16) = 0.46

This clashes with my experience greatly. I assume I made a maths mistake, but I can't find it.

Game 1: 90/10

Games 2 and 3: 40/60

and came up with a matchup win percentage of 46%, which was far lower than I expected. This is making me rethink the methodology behind my testing, assuming my maths is correct.

Odds of winning games 2 and 3 = 0.16

Odds of winning game 2 or game 3 = 2 * 0.6 * 0.4 = 0.48

Odds of losing games 2 and 3 = 0.36

Odds of winning match = (0.9 * 0.48) + (0.1 * 0.16) = 0.46

This clashes with my experience greatly. I assume I made a maths mistake, but I can't find it.

Last edited by Conelead on Mon Mar 22, 2010 3:42 pm; edited 1 time in total