I just did math for hypothetical matchup odds assuming this is true:
Game 1: 90/10
Games 2 and 3: 40/60
and came up with a matchup win percentage of 46%, which was far lower than I expected. This is making me rethink the methodology behind my testing, assuming my maths is correct.
Odds of winning games 2 and 3 = 0.16
Odds of winning game 2 or game 3 = 2 * 0.6 * 0.4 = 0.48
Odds of losing games 2 and 3 = 0.36
Odds of winning match = (0.9 * 0.48) + (0.1 * 0.16) = 0.46
This clashes with my experience greatly. I assume I made a maths mistake, but I can't find it.
Game 1: 90/10
Games 2 and 3: 40/60
and came up with a matchup win percentage of 46%, which was far lower than I expected. This is making me rethink the methodology behind my testing, assuming my maths is correct.
Odds of winning games 2 and 3 = 0.16
Odds of winning game 2 or game 3 = 2 * 0.6 * 0.4 = 0.48
Odds of losing games 2 and 3 = 0.36
Odds of winning match = (0.9 * 0.48) + (0.1 * 0.16) = 0.46
This clashes with my experience greatly. I assume I made a maths mistake, but I can't find it.
Last edited by Conelead on Mon Mar 22, 2010 3:42 pm; edited 1 time in total